Some researchers are ruling out the possibility of a Thucydides’ Trap between China and the US. However, foreign policy decision-makers shouldn’t consider whether the Trap has arrived or is a possibility, but work to prevent it from happening, Pang Zhongying, a professor of international relations at Ocean University of China, wrote for the
China Times.
Multilateralism would provide the balance to prevent the US and China from falling into the Trap. A concert of major powers, much like the Concert of Europe in the 19th century which was based on loose agreements between major powers in Europe to address European disputes and conflicts, would produce the global governance needed for a result-oriented, peaceful international systemic arrangement, he wrote.
But the current US administration is selectively withdrawing from such arrangements, which is bad for the peace between the US and the rest of the world, he warned. For example, the US’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has brought the country and Iran to the brink of war.
These crises show that the US-led world order is giving way to a new period of chaos, disorder and conflict, with the US and China falling into the Trap a worst-case scenario, Pang warned.
So it has become even more urgent to rebuild the world order and global governance, he wrote. Attempts to reform key mechanisms (like the WTO) will not be easy and may even fail, which would heighten world conflicts, he added.
Therefore, a concert of major countries, a lesson learned from the 19th century Europe, is the most realistic and effective plan to achieve this goal, Pang argued. It is also a new process and arrangement to avoid the Trap and manage conflicts among major countries.
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