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The highly watched summit between the leaders of the world’s two largest economies has guided the volatile China-US relationship onto a surer footing, though whether the momentum can be sustained remains uncertain

By Yu Xiaodong Updated Jan.1

Chinese President Xi Jinping meets with US President Joe Biden at the Filoli Estate, California, November 15, 2023 (Photo by Xinhua)

On November 15 local time, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden held a summit at the picturesque Filoli Estate on the outskirts of San Francisco, California. The meeting, which lasted more than four hours, took place just before the APEC Leaders’ Meeting scheduled for the following day. It was the leaders’ first face-to-face encounter since they met just over a year ago in Bali, Indonesia. 　

The widely anticipated meeting ended on a reassuring note, with both leaders highlighting the importance of stabilizing the relationship between the world’s two largest economies – what both have repeatedly acknowledged as “the most important bilateral relationship in the world.”

Xi noted that amid an era of momentous global transformation unseen in a century, China and the US are confronted with two options: working together to meet global challenges and promote global security and prosperity, or driving the world toward more turmoil and division with a zero-sum mentality, rivalry and confrontation. The Chinese president emphasized that “turning their backs on each other is not an option.” 　

Cautioning against relying on major-power competition to resolve the problems that China, the US and the wider world face, Xi said that the world is big enough to accommodate both countries, and the success of one country serves as an opportunity for the other, according to the Chinese State-run Xinhua News Agency. 　

“I’ve just concluded a day of meetings with President Xi, and I believe they were some of the most constructive and productive discussions we’ve had. We built on groundwork laid over the past several months of diplomacy between our countries and made important progress,” Biden wrote on social media platform X, previously known as Twitter. “There are critical global challenges that demand our joint leadership. And today, we made real progress.”　

New Detente

Calling it a “strategic” and “historic” meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the media after the summit that the two leaders reached more than 20 deliverables in a variety of fields. The two sides agreed to establish official talks on artificial intelligence (AI) and set up a working group on counter-narcotics cooperation. The two leaders agreed to resume the suspended cooperation on the climate crisis. 　

Climate change has long been regarded as one of the major fields with great potential for cooperation between the two countries. Just ahead of the Xi-Biden summit, the two sides issued the “Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis,” pledging to establish a working group to address areas of the climate crisis that can benefit from China-US cooperation, and enhance the two countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement, which was signed in 2015. 　

The two countries agreed to resume high-level military-to-military communication, including the China-US Defense Policy Coordination Talks, and the China-US Military Maritime Consultative Agreement meetings, and to conduct telephone conversations between theater commanders, though Xi stressed that such communication must be conducted on the basis of equality and respect. 　

They also agreed to start negotiations on renewing the China-US Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement (STA), one of the first major pacts signed by the two countries when they established formal diplomatic relations in 1979. 　

Since then, the STA was renewed every five years, but last time the US only extended it by six months, just three days before it was set to expire on August 27, 2023. 　

The two sides undertook to significantly increase scheduled passenger flights next year and to expand “educational, student, youth, cultural, sports and business exchanges.” Due to disputes on control measures China imposed on passenger flights during the global pandemic, the number of direct flights between the two countries dropped significantly compared to pre-Covid levels. 　

Ahead of the summit, aviation authorities in both countries allowed Chinese and US airline companies to increase weekly round-trip flights from 48 to 70 based on a reciprocal basis, though it is still far less than the over 300 weekly round-trip flights in the pre-Covid era.

This will facilitate people-to-people exchanges between the two countries, which was a key focus of Xi’s trip. At the Welcome Dinner by Friendly Organizations in the US right after his meeting with Biden, Xi announced a plan to invite 50,000 young Americans to China on exchange and study programs over the next five years. 　

Philadelphia Orchestra stages a concert comprising Ludwig van Beethoven’s Symphony of Fate and Chinese folk instrumental “Moon over a Fountain” at the National Center for the Performing Arts in Beijing on November 10, 2023 to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the orchestra’s ffrst performance in China in 1973 (Photo by IC)

A Walmart Supermarket in Wuhan, Hubei Province is crowded with customers shopping for the Chinese Lunar New Year, January 19, 2023 (Photo by VCG)

A pavilion jointly set up by AmCham Shanghai and the US Department of Agriculture opens at the sixth China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai starting on November 6, 2023. This has been the frst time for the US to launch an offcially fnanced pavilion in the CIIE (Photo by VCG)

‘A Recalibration’

The summit marked the latest efforts for the two countries to repair the bilateral relationship, which has nosedived since the US launched a trade war against China under the Trump administration in 2018. 　

Tensions reached boiling point after former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made a controversial visit to Taiwan in August 2022, which prompted China to suspend a long list of dialogue mechanisms in the military, economic and climate change spheres. 　

Although Xi and Biden managed to come together on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Bali in November 2022, where they agreed to stabilize the bilateral relationship, the US’ shooting down of a high-altitude balloon in February 2023, leading to the cancelation of a planned visit of US State Secretary Antony Blinken, caused tensions to escalate. While China said it was a weather balloon that was blown off-course, the US insisted that it was a spy balloon, although later in 2023, the US acknowledged that the balloon had likely strayed from its intended course for reasons unrelated to espionage. 　

In the meantime, the US adopted new restrictions on outbound investment to China and strengthened its control on exports of high-tech equipment and tools to China, while rallying the Netherlands, Japan and South Korea to join its efforts to curb the development of China’s high-tech sector. China responded by imposing its own restrictions, requiring exporters to seek a license to ship various key materials including gallium, germanium and graphite, and more recently rare-earth elements. 　

Both sides have exchanged accusations in the military domain. The US military has stepped up its close-in reconnaissance operations on China, leading to a rise in encounters between the armed forces of both nations. While the US frequently accused the Chinese military of conducting “unprofessional” interceptions of US warships and aircraft, China blamed the US for conducting “provocative” military deployments on China’s doorstep as the fundamental cause of escalations. 　

However, as there is increasing danger that heightened tensions could lead to direct military conflict, both sides sought to prevent the bilateral relationship from further deteriorating. Moreover, as both leaders grapple with various domestic challenges, stabilizing bilateral ties appears to serve the interests of both countries. 　

Challenged by persistently high inflation, volatile financial markets and a divided Congress over many issues, including the government debt ceiling and US support for Ukraine, Biden is currently trailing Trump in the polls in his bid for reelection next year. China, in the meantime, is confronting a range of economic woes, such as a slower than expected economic recovery, growing debt level, high unemployment pressure and currency fluctuations. 　

To counter the US’s decoupling agenda, China increased engagement with non-state actors from the US. In July, President Xi met with 100-year-old Henry Kissinger, a veteran diplomat who served as secretary of state and national security advisor under presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford. Kissinger played a crucial diplomatic role in normalizing ties between the two countries in the 1970s. 　

China also hosted a number of high-profile American entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk, owner of Tesla, SpaceX and X, who visited China in May, and Apple’s Tim Cook, who visited China in October and met with President Xi. In October, Xi held separate talks with visiting US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and California Governor Gavin Newsom in Beijing. 　

Starting in June, President Biden dispatched a flurry of top officials to China, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen and Special Climate Envoy John Kerry. China reciprocated by sending Foreign Minister Wang Yi, climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and Vice Premier He Lifeng to the US in more recent weeks.　

In the meantime, US officials have adopted a less confrontational stance by shifting their rhetoric from decoupling to the concept of “de-risking.” This change in approach was evident during Yellen’s visit to China in July, where she stressed that the US does not seek to “decouple” from China, deeming it both “virtually impossible” and “economically disastrous.” 　

In mid-August, Admiral John Aquilino, the 26th Commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command and General Xu Qiling, Deputy Chief of the Central Military Commission Joint Staff Department, held a meeting in Fiji, marking the first high-level dialogue between the armed forces of the two countries since high-level military dialogues were suspended a year ago. All of these efforts helped lay the groundwork for the summit. 　

“It [the summit] is a recalibration of the China-US relationship,” Professor Li Haidong, director of Center for American Studies with the China Foreign Affairs University, told NewsChina. “It not only serves the interests of both countries, but also reflects the universal expectation of the international community. A stable China-US relationship will inject important confidence and vitality into global development and security.” 　

Desmond Delanty, an American architect, inspires young Chinese with innovative approaches to refurbish local residences in Tonglu County, Hangzhou, August 15, 2019 (Photo by VCG)

Stephon Marbury, a former NBA all-star player turned three-time championship winner with the Beijing Ducks Chinese basketball team, exchanges basketball skills with overseas Chinese students from Northeastern Chinese Basketball League, a non-proft organization for the Chinese collegiate basketball tournament in North America, in the Manhattan View at MIMA, New York, May 8, 2018 (Photo by VCG)

Giant panda Xiao Qi Ji (Little Miracle) eats bamboo in his enclosure at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington, September 28, 2023 (Photo by VCG)

Giant panda Mei Xiang is quarantined upon her arrival in Chengdu, Sichuan Province, November 10, 2023. Having resided at the Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington since 2000, Mei Xiang returned to China with Tian Tian and their male cub Xiao Qi Ji, who was born in August 2020 (Photo by VCG)

Disputes Remain

However, it is worth noting that behind the handshakes and positive tone between the two leaders, the majority of agreements reached during the summit primarily revolved around resuming and initiating dialogues, without any significant breakthroughs on key disputes.

The only tangible policy change is the Biden administration’s decision to remove the Chinese Ministry of Public Security’s Institute of Forensic Science from a trade sanctions list. The decision was made in exchange for China’s cooperation in curbing the influx of synthetic opioid fentanyl into the US. 　

For most analysts, the summit is more about sending a message to the world that the world’s two largest economies have returned to a diplomatic normalcy despite their strained relationship, rather than addressing concrete disputes. 　

“The significance of the summit lies in the fact that the two countries showed that they share the common desire to manage their disputes amid the downward spiral of the bilateral relationship,” Professor Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, told NewsChina. “But to truly improve the China-US relationship, the two countries need to not only explore areas where they can cooperate, but also address some of their disputes,” Wu added. 　

It is clear that the two countries are still far apart on some major issues. According to a statement from China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry, during his meeting with Biden, Xi criticized the US’s actions against China regarding export control, investment screening and unilateral sanctions which Xi said “seriously undermine China’s legitimate interests.” Stressing that China’s development “will not be stopped by external forces,” Xi urged the US to “take China’s concerns seriously and adopt tangible steps to lift its unilateral sanctions.” 　

Xi reiterated China’s position on the Taiwan question, which he said “remains the most important and most sensitive issue in China-US relations. China takes seriously the positive statements made by the United States in the Bali meeting.” Xi called on the US to stop supporting “Taiwan independence” and arming Taiwan, and to support China’s peaceful reunification. “China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable,” Xi added. 　

Speaking to media after the summit, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stressed that “China has legitimate interests that must be safeguarded, principles and positions that must be upheld, and red lines that must not be crossed.” 　

“If the US side is bent on encircling and containing China under the pretext of competition, China will firmly uphold its sovereignty, security and development interests,” Wang said. 　

According to the White House’s readout on the summit, Biden reiterated the US’s stances on issues related to China. Emphasizing that the two countries are in competition, Biden reaffirmed the US’s “ironclad commitment to defending our Indo-Pacific allies,” and the “enduring commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight.” On Taiwan, Biden said that the one-China policy has not changed and urged to China to restrain its military activity in and around the Taiwan Strait.　

High-profle interactions between China and the US in 2023 leading up to the Xi-Biden Summit on November 15, 2023 since their meeting in Bali, Indonesia on November 14, 2022

June 18-19, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Director of the Offce of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi

July 6-9, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen visited China and held talks with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Vice-Premier Liu He, and China’s central bank governor Yi Gang

July 16-19, US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry visited China and held talks with his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua

August 16, General Xu Qiling, Deputy Chief of China’s Central Military Commission Joint Staff Department, met with Admiral John Aquilino, Commander of the US Indo-Pacifc Command, at a defense ministers’ conference in Fiji

August 27-30, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visited Beijing and Shanghai, and met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao

September 18, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met Chinese Vice President Han Zheng on the margins of the 78th UN General Assembly in New York City

October 7, US Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer led a delegation of US lawmakers to China, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other Chinese offcials

October 23-29, California Governor Gavin Newsom paid a weeklong visit to several Chinese cities, and held a “surprise” meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other high-level offcials

October 26-28, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited Washington, where he met with US President Joe Biden, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan

October 29 - 31, a delegation led by Cynthia Carras Principal Director for China and Mongolia, the US Offce of the Secretary of Defense, attends the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, a cross-regional security dialogue platform

November 4-7, China’s Special Envoy for Climate Change Xie Zhenhua visited the US and met with US Special Envoy for Climate John Kerry

November 8-12, Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng visited the US and met with various US offcials

‘Inspiring but Worrying’

Professor Wang Jisi, president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, described the recent developments in the China-US relationship as both “inspiring and worrying.” 　

“[It is] inspiring because all the Americans expressed positive views about the bilateral relationship’s momentum, about stopping its free fall and seeing it stabilize,” Wang said in a commentary published by chinausfocus. com on November 18. 　

“It is also worrying because the US has redoubled its efforts to suppress China in high-tech areas, and the two governments’ strategic divergences in other realms have not narrowed,” Wang said. 　

He warned that as the US approaches a general election year in 2024, fierce domestic political struggles and geopolitical conflicts such as the Ukraine war and the Palestine crisis could have negative impacts on the two countries’ relations. 　

“We must realize that the China-US relationship is not going to rise from its low point anytime soon,” Wang continued, “The mishandling of any accident might bring the hard-earned momentum back to its nadir.” 　

Indeed, one year ago, on the sidelines of the G20 Summit held in Bali, Indonesia, the two presidents reached a similar detente, which was also seen as having injected certainty into the bilateral relationship. But the understanding fell apart in less than three months after the US accused China of spying in the “balloon incident.” 　

According to Professor Jia Qingguo, director of the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding at Peking University, the summit was not of any use to address the structural problems of the bilateral relationship. “The two sides still tend to adopt confrontational stances in the ideological realm and in defining their relative interests, not to mention strong negative sentiments among the public of the countries,” Jia said in an interview with Chinese media outlet The Paper. 　

Jia warned that the biggest uncertainty for the bilateral relationship is the 2024 US presidential election. While there has been bipartisan consensus in Washington regarding the US’s anti-China policy, the Republican Party led by Donald Trump has advocated a more confrontational approach toward China, which has proven to be potentially dangerous and detrimental to the overall China-US relationship. 　

“It is not yet time for optimism,” Jia said. “We should be grateful that the China-US relationship can be stabilized in the short term, and more efforts are needed for the bilateral relationship to truly improve.”　

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