hina’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released the seventh population census on May 11, which revealed the Chinese mainland is now home to more than 1.412 billion people, up from 1.34 billion recorded in the sixth census in 2010, a rise of 5.38 percent and around 72 million people.
The census, conducted in 2020, covers 31 mainland provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The ethnic breakdown shows the Han group accounting for 91.1 percent and other ethnic groups for 8.89 percent. The Han group increased by 4.93 percent to 1.29 billion, and other ethnic groups by 10.26 percent to 125.5 million on 2010 figures.
The seventh census still shows a male-female imbalance, with males at 51.24 percent and females at 48.76 percent, with a sex ratio of 105.1 males to 100 females, slightly lower than in 2010. There are around 34 million more males than females.
Breaking down the figures by age, there were 253.4 million children aged 14 and under, 17.95 percent of the total, 1.35 percent higher than that in 2010. Seniors aged 60 and over accounted for 18.7 percent, 5.44 percent more than that in 2010, totaling 264.02 million. Those aged between 16 and 59 years old amounted to 894.38 million, 63.35 percent of the total, indicating that China still has a large working-age population. The average age remained steady at 38.8 years old.
Continuing urbanization has led to an increase in the urban population to 63.89 percent of the total, 14.21 percent more than that in 2010, with 901.99 million people living in cities and towns. The rural population, 36.11 percent of the whole, dropped to 509.79 million, a decrease of 164.36 million. Meanwhile, those staying in a different city where they have registered for permanent residence (hukou) increased by 69.73 percent to 376 million compared to 2010.
After the Chinese mainland relaxed its family planning policy in 2016, allowing couples to have a second child, 2016 and 2017 saw an uplift in the birth rate, with 18 million births in 2016, 2 million more than before the ban was lifted, and 17 million in 2017. In 2017, second children accounted for more than 50 percent of total new births that year. The number of second births then declined, but it was still over 40 percent.
However, the fertility rate of mainland women of child-bearing age has dropped to 1.3, a relatively low level. NBS director Ning Jizhe attributed the drop to the decrease in the number of women of childbearing age and the weakening influence of the second child policy, plus people’s worries over the uncertainties brought about by the Covid-19 pandemic.
“The fertility level is influenced by [government] policies as well as economic, social and cultural elements,” Ning told the Xinhua News Agency, adding that societal and economic factors were becoming more influential. “As people’s mindset on fertility is changing along with industrialization and modernization, the low fertility rate will be as big a challenge for China as it is for developed Western countries,” he said.
Given China’s big population base, Ning predicted that the population will continue to increase, but at a lower pace in the near future, although he could not give a specific time when the population will peak and then decline. The number of newborns recorded is decreasing annually, falling to 10.03 million in 2020, 7.83 million less than in 2016.
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